THE INTERPLAY OF RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE AND INTERNATIONAL CPO PRICES IN DRIVING VALUE OF INDONESIA’S CPO EXPORT GROWTH (2013-2023)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the Rupiah exchange rate against the United States Dollar (USD) and international Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices on the development of the value of Indonesia’s CPO export during the 2013-2023 period. The study employs secondary annual data obtained from Bank Indonesia, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), FAOSTAT, and World bank. A quantitative descriptive analysis with the Pearson Correlation approach was used to measure the direction and strength of relationship among variables. The result indicate that the Rupiah exchange rate has a positive relationship with the value of Indonesia’s CPO export, with a correlation coefficient of 0.588 (moderate relationship) and a significance value of 0.057, suggesting an economically relevant association though statistically insignificant at the 5% level. Meanwhile, international CPO prices exhibit a strong positive relationship with the value of Indonesia’s CPO export, with correlation coefficient of 0.701 and a significance value of 0.016. these findings confirm that fluctuations in international CPO prices have a more dominant influence on export performance than exchange rate fluctuations, as international prices directly determine the value of export transactions. Overall, the study concludes that the value of Indonesia’s CPO exports is largely influenced by global market dynamics and the stability of domestic macroeconomic conditions