Main Article Content
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to examine the competitiveness of Indonesian cocoa derivative product exports, especially cocoa paste, cocoa butter, and cocoa powder, to the main destination countries: Malaysia, China, the Philippines, the United States, and India and to analyze the export trends of cocoa derivative products to make a forecast for the next 10 years. Data analysis includes the RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage), ECI (Export Competitiveness Index) and ARIMA models. The results show that Indonesian cocoa paste has significant competitiveness in Malaysia, China, the Philippines, and the United States, but not in India because the RCA value is < 1. Indonesian cocoa butter and powder have a high competitive advantage in the main destination countries, indicated by the RCA value> 1. Indonesian cocoa paste, cocoa butter, and cocoa powder have been competitive since 2005 to 2022, indicated by the average ECI score > 1. In addition, the projection of Indonesia cocoa paste export prospects to major destination countries shows an increasing trend from 2023 to 2032, except for the Philippines which is expected to decline during that period, with an average of only 142.51 tons per year. The projection of the quantity of Indonesia cocoa butter exports to major destination countries shows an increasing pattern. The projection of the amount of Indonesia cocoa powder exports to Malaysia, China, the Philippines, and India is on an increasing trajectory; however, in the United States, it shows fluctuations with a downward trend with an average of 1,899,175 tons per year.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Soraya Alaini, Novi Rosanti, Firdasari

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References
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- Made, S., et al. (2025). Analyzing The Competitiveness of Indonesia Lobster Exports: Comparative and Competitive Advantages Using RCA and ECI indices. international Journal of Religion, 6(1), 77-87. doi: 10.61707/22r9rn67
- Manalu, D. S. (2019). Analisis Daya Saing Ekspor Biji Kakao Indonesia ke Malaysia. MAHATANI, 2 (2): 131-139. doi: 10.52434/mja.v2i2.790
- Maulana, A. & Kartiasih, F. (2017). Analisis Ekspor Kakao Olahan Indonesia ke Sembilan Negara Tujuan Tahun 2000-2014. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 17(2), 103-117. doi: 10.21002/jepi.v17i2.01
- Napitupulu, D.A., Gabriel, P.Y., Sirait, R., Prayoga, R. (2024). Analisis Daya Saing Kakao Indonesia di Pasar Internasional. Jase(Journal of Agribusiness, Social and Economic), 4(1), 38-43. doi : 10.32585/jase.v4i1.5022
- Nauly, D., Daris, E., & Nuhung, I. A. (2014). Daya Saing Ekspor Kakao Olahan Indonesia. Jurnal Agribisnis, 8(1), 15-28. doi: 10.15408/aj.v8i1.5126
- Nurwansyah, A., Nuraini, C., & Apriyani, D. (2024). Daya Saing Ekspor Lemak Kakao Indonesia di Pasar Internasional. Jurnal forum Agribisnis, 14(1), 50-58. doi: 10.29244/fagb.14.1.50-58
- Oni, O.V., et al. (2021), Modelling Annual Cocoa Production Using ARIMA Time Series Model. African Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies, 4(3), 135-144. doi: 10.52589/AJMSS0LPATDNK
- Prete, M. D. & Samoggia, A. (2020). Chocolate Consumption and Purchasing Behaviour Review: Research Issues and insights for Future Research. Journal Sustainability, 12(14), 1-17. doi: 10.3390/su12145586
- Putri, R. K., & Prihtanti, T. M. (2020). Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Volume Ekspor Kakao (Theobroma Cacao, L) Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis (JEPA), 4(3), 528-536. doi: 10.21776/ub.jepa.2020.004.03.08
- Qadrini, L., et al. (2020). forecasting Bank Indonesia Currency inflo and Outflow Using Arima, Time Series Regression (TSR), Arimax, and Approaches in Lampung.Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi, 17(2),166–177. doi: 10.20956/jmsk.v17i2.11803
- Rahmadona, L., Nauly, D., & Putri, D.I. (2023). Analisis Daya Saing Kakao Olahan Indonesia di Negara Tujuan Utama Dunia. Jurnal Agrosains dan Teknologi, 8(1), 39-46. doi: 10.24853/jat.8.1.39-46
- Rakhmawan, S. (2021). Peramalan Nilai Ekspor Besi dan Baja di Masa Pandemi COVID 19. Jurnal dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan, 4(3), 196-210. doi: 10.14710/jdep.4.3.196-210
- Seran, E. A., et al. (2023). Daya Saing Ekspor Produk Olahan Kakao Indonesia di Negara Malaysia pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19. Agriprimatech, 7(1), 17-25. doi: 10.34012/agriprimatech.v7i1.4182
- Sitepu, R. K., & Sinaga, B. M. (2018). Aplikasi Model Ekonometrika: Estimasi, Simulasi dan Peramalan Menggunakan Program SAS. Bogor: institut Pertanian Bogor
- Susanti, et al. (2024). Analisis Daya Saing Ekspor Kakao Indonesia di Pasar Malaysia. Jurnal Penelitian Manajemen dan inovasi Riset, 2(3), 255-262. doi: 10.61132/lokawati.v2i3.899
- Tenriawaru, et al. (2022). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average for Cocoa Production in Sulawesi Island 2021-2030. Jurnal AGRISEP: Kajian Masalah Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis, 21(2), 425-436. doi: 10.31186/jagrisep.21.2.425-436
- Tupamahu, Y. M., & Apituley, M. R. (2022). Daya Saing Ekspor Komoditi Kakao Indonesia dan Produk Turunannya di Pasar Internasional Kondisi Sebelum dan Sesudah Penetapan Bea Keluar. Agrikan: Jurnal Agribisnis Perikanan, 15(2), 701-709. doi : 10.52046/agrikan.v15i2.1413
- Wellyanti, B. (2015). Keunggulan Komparatif Indonesia pada 10 Komoditi Unggulan ASEAN Tahun 1997-2009. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 8(1), 92-99. doi: 10.24843/JEKT.2015.v08.i01.p10
- Widhiyoga, G. & Wijayati, H. (2022). Challenges Faced By Cocoa-Based industries From Indonesia in Global Value Chains. Husnayain Business Review Journal Adpebi, 2(2), 1-10. doi: 10.54099/hbr.v2i2.288
- Zulfiandri. 2018. Strategi Percepatan Pengembangan industri Pengolahan Kakao dan industri Coklat di Indonesia. Jurnal inovasi, 14(1), 43-55. Retrieved from https://ejurnal.esaunggul.ac.id/index.php/inovisi/article/view/3587
References
Adelina, S., Wibowo, R. P., & Hasyim, H. (2020). Analysis of the Export Determinants of Indonesian Cocoa With Gravity Model Approach. International Journal of Research and Review, 7(10), 66-75. Retrieved from http://repositori.usu.ac.id/handle/123456789/29327
Aji, R. V., Ishak, Z., & Mukhlis. (2017). Analisis Komparatif Daya Saing Ekspor Biji Kakao Antara Indonesia, Pantai Gading dan Ghana: Pendekatan RCA dan CMS. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 15(2), 69-84. doi: 10.29259/jep.v15i2.8832
Andini, D., Yulianto, E., & Fanani, D. (2016). Peningkatan Daya Saing Ekspor Produk Olahan Kakao Indonesia di Pasar internasional (Studi pada Ekspor Produk Olahan Kakao Indonesia Tahun 2009-2014). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 38(2), 171-175. Retrieved from https://administrasibisnis.studentjournal.ub.ac.id/index.php/jab/article/view/1523
Anggraini, D., Syapsan, & Darmayuda. (2021). Daya Saing Ekspor Lada Indonesia ke Negara Amerika Serikat. Convergence: The Journal of Economic Development, 3(2), 90-105. doi:10.33369/convergence-jep.v3i2.17875
Augustin, N. P., Prasetyo, E., & Santoso, S. I. (2022). Analisis Daya Saing dan Trend Ekspor Kakao Indonesia ke Lima Negara Tujuan Tahun 2010-2019. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis (JEPA), 6(2), 441-455. doi: 10.21776/ub.jepa.2022.006.02.10
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2022). Statistik Kakao Indonesia 2021. Retrieved from https://www.bps.go.id/id/publication/2022/11/30/be404f7a76a56887462b5187/statistik-kakao-Indonesia-2021.html
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2023). Statistik Perdagangan Luar Negeri Indonesia Ekspor 2004-2023. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2023). Buletin Statistik Perdagangan Luar Negeri Ekspor Menurut Kelompok Komoditi dan Negara. Retrieved from https://www.bps.go.id/id/publication?keyword=Buletin%20Statistik%20Perdagangan%20Luar%20Negeri%20Ekspor%20Menurut%20Kelompok%20Komoditi%20dan%20Negara&onlyTitle=true&sort=latest
Dianawati et al. (2023). Measuring Indonesian Cocoa Agroindustry Competitiveness From a Global Value Chain Perspective. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan: Jurnal BRIN, 17(2), 133-156. doi: 10.55981/bilp.2023.978
Gautama, B. H. (2019). Dampak Penerapan Kebijakan Bea Keluar terhadap Ekspor Kakao Indonesia. Jurnal PKN STAN, 3(1), 81-95. doi: 10.31092/jpbc.v3i1.432
Ginting, N. M., Rahmanta, R., & Lindawati, L. (2021). Analisis Daya Saing Kakao Olahan dan Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Daya Saing Kakao Olahan Provinsi Sumatera Utara, Indonesia di Pasar internasional. Agro Bali: Agricultural Journal, 4(3), 425-437. doi: 10.37637/ab.v4i3.843
Harahap, A.M., & Yeniwati. (2023). Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Cocoa Powder Indonesia Ke China. Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 5(1), 1-10. Retrieved from https://ejournal.unp.ac.id/students/index.php/epb/article/view/14415/5476
International Trade Centre (INTRACEN). (2023). Trade Map List of Exporters for The Selected Product (Cocoa and Cocoa Preparations) 2003-2022. Retrieved from https://www.trademap.org/Country_SelProductCountry_TS.aspx?nvpm=1%7c360%7c%7c%7c%7c18%7c%7c%7c2%7c1%7c1%7c2%7c2%7c1%7c2%7c1%7c1%7c
Izaati, I. N. & Annas, A. (2022). Cocoa Export Competitiveness Indonesia in European Union Market. International Journal of Progressive Sciences and Technologies (IJPSAT), 35 (1): 159-168. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.52155/ijpsat.v35.1.4676
Izzatin, N. R., Badiatud, D., &Masahid. (2023). Analisis Daya Saing Ekspor Kakao Indonesia di Pasar Internasional. Agro Bali : Agricultural Journal, 6(2), 337–49. doi: 10.37637/ab.v6i2.1266
Made, S., et al. (2025). Analyzing The Competitiveness of Indonesia Lobster Exports: Comparative and Competitive Advantages Using RCA and ECI indices. international Journal of Religion, 6(1), 77-87. doi: 10.61707/22r9rn67
Manalu, D. S. (2019). Analisis Daya Saing Ekspor Biji Kakao Indonesia ke Malaysia. MAHATANI, 2 (2): 131-139. doi: 10.52434/mja.v2i2.790
Maulana, A. & Kartiasih, F. (2017). Analisis Ekspor Kakao Olahan Indonesia ke Sembilan Negara Tujuan Tahun 2000-2014. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 17(2), 103-117. doi: 10.21002/jepi.v17i2.01
Napitupulu, D.A., Gabriel, P.Y., Sirait, R., Prayoga, R. (2024). Analisis Daya Saing Kakao Indonesia di Pasar Internasional. Jase(Journal of Agribusiness, Social and Economic), 4(1), 38-43. doi : 10.32585/jase.v4i1.5022
Nauly, D., Daris, E., & Nuhung, I. A. (2014). Daya Saing Ekspor Kakao Olahan Indonesia. Jurnal Agribisnis, 8(1), 15-28. doi: 10.15408/aj.v8i1.5126
Nurwansyah, A., Nuraini, C., & Apriyani, D. (2024). Daya Saing Ekspor Lemak Kakao Indonesia di Pasar Internasional. Jurnal forum Agribisnis, 14(1), 50-58. doi: 10.29244/fagb.14.1.50-58
Oni, O.V., et al. (2021), Modelling Annual Cocoa Production Using ARIMA Time Series Model. African Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies, 4(3), 135-144. doi: 10.52589/AJMSS0LPATDNK
Prete, M. D. & Samoggia, A. (2020). Chocolate Consumption and Purchasing Behaviour Review: Research Issues and insights for Future Research. Journal Sustainability, 12(14), 1-17. doi: 10.3390/su12145586
Putri, R. K., & Prihtanti, T. M. (2020). Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Volume Ekspor Kakao (Theobroma Cacao, L) Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis (JEPA), 4(3), 528-536. doi: 10.21776/ub.jepa.2020.004.03.08
Qadrini, L., et al. (2020). forecasting Bank Indonesia Currency inflo and Outflow Using Arima, Time Series Regression (TSR), Arimax, and Approaches in Lampung.Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi, 17(2),166–177. doi: 10.20956/jmsk.v17i2.11803
Rahmadona, L., Nauly, D., & Putri, D.I. (2023). Analisis Daya Saing Kakao Olahan Indonesia di Negara Tujuan Utama Dunia. Jurnal Agrosains dan Teknologi, 8(1), 39-46. doi: 10.24853/jat.8.1.39-46
Rakhmawan, S. (2021). Peramalan Nilai Ekspor Besi dan Baja di Masa Pandemi COVID 19. Jurnal dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan, 4(3), 196-210. doi: 10.14710/jdep.4.3.196-210
Seran, E. A., et al. (2023). Daya Saing Ekspor Produk Olahan Kakao Indonesia di Negara Malaysia pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19. Agriprimatech, 7(1), 17-25. doi: 10.34012/agriprimatech.v7i1.4182
Sitepu, R. K., & Sinaga, B. M. (2018). Aplikasi Model Ekonometrika: Estimasi, Simulasi dan Peramalan Menggunakan Program SAS. Bogor: institut Pertanian Bogor
Susanti, et al. (2024). Analisis Daya Saing Ekspor Kakao Indonesia di Pasar Malaysia. Jurnal Penelitian Manajemen dan inovasi Riset, 2(3), 255-262. doi: 10.61132/lokawati.v2i3.899
Tenriawaru, et al. (2022). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average for Cocoa Production in Sulawesi Island 2021-2030. Jurnal AGRISEP: Kajian Masalah Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis, 21(2), 425-436. doi: 10.31186/jagrisep.21.2.425-436
Tupamahu, Y. M., & Apituley, M. R. (2022). Daya Saing Ekspor Komoditi Kakao Indonesia dan Produk Turunannya di Pasar Internasional Kondisi Sebelum dan Sesudah Penetapan Bea Keluar. Agrikan: Jurnal Agribisnis Perikanan, 15(2), 701-709. doi : 10.52046/agrikan.v15i2.1413
Wellyanti, B. (2015). Keunggulan Komparatif Indonesia pada 10 Komoditi Unggulan ASEAN Tahun 1997-2009. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 8(1), 92-99. doi: 10.24843/JEKT.2015.v08.i01.p10
Widhiyoga, G. & Wijayati, H. (2022). Challenges Faced By Cocoa-Based industries From Indonesia in Global Value Chains. Husnayain Business Review Journal Adpebi, 2(2), 1-10. doi: 10.54099/hbr.v2i2.288
Zulfiandri. 2018. Strategi Percepatan Pengembangan industri Pengolahan Kakao dan industri Coklat di Indonesia. Jurnal inovasi, 14(1), 43-55. Retrieved from https://ejurnal.esaunggul.ac.id/index.php/inovisi/article/view/3587