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Abstract
Globally four main vegetable oils are soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, and palm oils. Although these oils compete, their prices typically trend in the same direction. This research aims to investigate the short-term and long-term pricing relationships among these four oils. After using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for analysis, the study applies variance decomposition and impulse response approaches. Monthly data from January 2003 to December 2024 is included in the dataset. The results show that each vegetable oil's price is impacted by its historical price in the short run. On the other hand, the four oil prices show a long-term link over the long run, suggesting that they are cointegrated. It is evident from variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis that soybean oil's price significantly has a greater influence on the price of palm, sunflower, and rapeseed oils. The conclusion is that the price fluctuations of rapeseed oil, sunflower oil, and palm oil are largely driven by changes in soybean oil prices.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Lela Novita Sari, Feryanto, Rachmat Pambudy

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References
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References
Akmalia, H. A. (2022). The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Indonesia and Its Strategies: A Systematic Review. Agritepa: Jurnal Ilmu dan Teknologi Pertanian, 9(1), 145-160. doi: 10.37676/agritepa.v9i1.1691
Azam, A. H. M., Sarmidi, T., Abu Hassan Shaari Md Nor, & Muhamad Rias K. V. Zainuddin. (2020). Co-Movement Among World Vegetable Oil Prices: A Wavelet-Based Analysis. International Journal of Business and Society, 21(3), 1068–1086. doi: 10.33736/ijbs.3312.2020
Destiarni, R., & Jamil, A. (2021). Price Integration Analysis of Crude Oil and Vegetable Oils. HABITAT, 32(2), 82–92. doi: 10.21776/ub.habitat.2021.032.2.10
Enh, A. M., Mustafa, H., Ahmed, F., & Wahab, A. (2024). Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on the Quality and Quantity of Malaysia’s Palm Oil Production: A Time Series Analysis. PLOS ONE, 19(5), 1-14. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302405
Hassan, A., & Balu, N. (2016). Examining the Long-Term Relationships between the Prices of Palm Oil and Soybean Oil, Palm Oil Production and Export: Cointegration and Causality. Oil Palm Industry Economic Journal, 16(1), 31–37. Retrieved from https://opiej.mpob.gov.my
Helbawanti, O., Bunda, C. A. P., & Faqihuddin, F. (2022). Integrasi Pasar Berjangka Komoditi Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Indonesia di Masa Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Agrica, 15(1), 61–74. doi: 10.31289/agrica.v15i1.5401
Ismail, N., Zakaria, K., & Nambiappan, B. (2019). Sunflower Oil Industry in Russia and Its Impact on Import of Malaysian Palm Oil. Oil Palm Industry Economic Journal, 19(1), 1–8. Retrieved from https://opiej.mpob.gov.my/sunflower-oil-industry-in-russia-and-its-impact-on-import-of-malaysian-palm-oil/
Jagtap, S., Trollman, H., Trollman, F., Garcia-Garcia, G., Parra-López, C., Duong, L., Martindale, W., Munekata, P. E. S., Lorenzo, J. M., Hdaifeh, A., Hassoun, A., Salonitis, K., & Afy-Shararah, M. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Its Implications for the Global Food Supply Chains. Foods (Basel, Switzerland), 11(14), 1-23. doi: 10.3390/foods11142098
Khairunisa, G. R., & Novianti, T. (2017). Daya Saing Minyak Sawit dan Dampak Renewable Energy Directive (RED) Uni Eropa Terhadap Ekspor Indonesia di Pasar Uni Eropa. Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia, 5(2),103–116. doi: 10.29244/jai.2017.5.2.103-116
Manik, M., Napitupulu, D., & Elwamendri, E. (2018). Analisis Integrasi Harga Minyak Kelapa Sawit dan Harga Minyak Kedelai di Pasar Internasional. Jurnal Ilmiah Sosio-Ekonomika Bisnis, 21(2), 65-75. doi: 10.22437/jiseb.v21i2.8608
Mutia, M., Sutiarnoto, & Tarigan, V. C. E. (2024). Persiapan Pemerintah Indonesia dalam Menghadapi Embargo Kelapa Sawit sebagai Dampak Penerapan EUDR - Penelusuran Google. Journal of Private Law, 1(2), 162-174. Retrieved from https://journal.fh.unsri.ac.id
Nurhidayati, I., Hakim, D. B., & Asmara, A. (2015). Integrasi Pasar Karet Alam Sit Asap antara Produsen Utama dengan Pasar Berjangka Dunia. Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis, 12(3), 204-215. doi: 10.17358/jma.12.3.204
Nuryanto, U. W., Ekasari, S., Asir, M., Tuatfaru, M., & Sairmaly, F. A. (2023). The Analysis Effect of International Price, GDP, Land Area and Substitutional Price on Export Volume of Indonesian Palm Oil. JEMSI (Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Dan Akuntansi), 9(1), 186-191. doi: 10.35870/jemsi.v9i1.906
Oktiani, D. (2019). Hubungan Kausalitas Granger Harga Minyak Makan Nabati: Minyak Sawit, Minyak Kedelai, Minyak Canola, dan Minyak Biji Bunga Matahari. Jurnal Riset Industri, 11(1), 1–7. doi: 10.46559/tegi.v11i1.5658
Paramita, D. P. R., Nuryartono, N., & Achsani, N. A. (2015). Analisis Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Harga dan Integrasi Harga Olein. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 4(1), 28-48. doi: 10.29244/jekp.4.1.2015.28-48
PASPI. (2019). Minyak Sawit dalam Impor dan Konsumsi Minyak Nabati China. Palm Oil Journal Analysis of Palm Oil Strategic Issues, 5(19), 1510–1515. Retrieved from https://palmoilina.asia
PASPI. (2022). Fenomena Peningkatan Harga Minyak Sawit dan Kelayakan Program Mandatori Biodiesel. Palm Oil Journal Analysis of Palm Oil Strategic Issues, 3(4), 602–606. Retrieved from https://palmoilina.asia
PASPI. (2024). Kelapa Sawit Tanaman Paling Produktif [Infografis 2024]. Retrieved from https://palmoilina.asia/berita-sawit/kelapa-sawit-tanaman-produktif/
Rifin, A. (2013). Analysis of Indonesia’s Market Position in the Palm Oil Market in China and India. Journal of Food Products Marketing, 19(4), 299–310. doi: 10.1080/10454446.2013.726950
Rifin, A., & Nauly, D. (2021). Vector Error Correction Model Relationship between Three Vegetable Oil Products. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 892(1), 1-6. doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/892/1/012062
Simanjuntak, J. D., Cramon-Taubadel, S. von, Kusnadi, N., & Suharno. (2020). Vertical Price Transmission in Soybean, Soybean Oil, and Soybean Meal Markets. Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis, 17(1), 42–51. doi: 17358/jma.17.1.42
Sipayung, T. (2024). 9 Isu Minyak Sawit dalam Persaingan Minyak Nabati Global—Mitos Vs Fakta (2024). Retrieved from https://palmoilina.asia/sawit-hub/persaingan-minyak-nabati-global/
TradeMap. (2024). TradeMap. Trade Statistics for International Business Development. Retrieved from https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx?nvpm=1
Winardi, W., Susanto, H., & Martana, K. (2017). The Impact of World CPO Price Change towards Prices, Economic Activities, and Income Distribution in Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 11(2), 207-226. doi: 10.30908/bilp.v11i2.66
Zahraturrahmi & Demircan, V. (2023, October 27). The Impact of The COVID-19 on Indonesian Palm Oil Exports. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/tjse/article/1372120
Zaidi, M. A. S., Abdul Karim, Z., & Zaidon, N. A. (2022). External and Internal Shocks and the Movement of Palm Oil Price: Svar Evidence from Malaysia. Economies, 10(1), 1-17. doi: 10.3390/economies10010007
Zakaria, K., Mohamed, K., Salleh, & Balu. (2017). Factors Affecting Palm Oil Demand in India. Retrieved from https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Factors-Affecting-Palm-Oil-Demand-in-India-Zakaria-Mohamed/9c73c2576ec318feafd9423081adc949bc240490