Article Sidebar

Download
Download Pdf
Statistic
Read Counter : 1234 Download : 1048

Main Article Content

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the impact of economic growth and inflation on unemployment in Indonesia over the period 1990-2021. Okun's Law states that there is a relationship between economic growth and unemployment, where the percentage increase in economic growth will be offset by a greater change in the unemployment rate. In other side, the classical Philips curve indicates a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. The data used in this study are secondary data of economic growth, unemployment rate, and inflation rate in Indonesia, obtained from Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia website. The data was processed using the autoregressive distribution lag model (ARDL)  to obtain the regression coefficients. Aggregated data results show a negative relationship between economic growth and inflation to the unemployment rate. Thus, the authorities must focus on sustaining economic growth and inflation to reduce the unemployment rate in Indonesia.


 


Keywords :  Economic Growth1, Unemployment Rate2, Inflation 3

Article Details

License

Copyright (c) 2022 Esti Pasaribu M.Ec.Dev.

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

  • This statement is a commitment from the author, to respect copyright, both in terms of quoting the work of others, as well as in the use of journal content. 
  • If needed, the author can send a statement of authenticity of the manuscript. With the receipt of an article by the Editor of Convergence: The Journal of Economic Development, the article submitted has the copyright held by Convergence: The Journal of Economic Development Convergence: 
  • The Journal of Economic Development has the right to reproduce and distribute articles that have been published in journals. 
  • The author is not permitted to publish the same article that has been published in this journal.
How to Cite
Pasaribu, E. (2022). Pembuktian Okun’s Law dalam Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Convergence: The Journal of Economic Development, 4(2), 153–165. https://doi.org/10.33369/convergencejep.v4i2.28517
Download Citation
Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS)
BibTeX

References

  1. Akarsu, M. Z. (2021). Investigating the causal relationship between economic growth, inflation, and unemployment in South Korea. Ekonomia, 27(2). https://doi.org/10.19195/2658-1310.27.2.3
  2. Bankole, A. S., Fatai, B. O., & Programme, T. (2013). Empirical Test of Okun ’ s Law in Nigeria. International Journal of Economic Practices and Theories, 3(3).
  3. Bartosik, K. (2020). Temporary contracts and Okun?s law in Poland. Equilibrium, 15(4). https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.032
  4. Benos, N., & Stavrakoudis, A. (2022). Okun’s law: Copula-based evidence from G7 countries. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2020.10.004
  5. Cevik, E. I., Dibooglu, S., & Barişik, S. (2013). Asymmetry in the unemployment-output relationship over the business cycle: Evidence from transition economies. Comparative Economic Studies, 55(4). https://doi.org/10.1057/ces.2013.7
  6. Cutanda, A. (2020). Stability and asymmetry in Okun’s law: Evidence from Spanish regional data. Panoeconomicus, 00. https://doi.org/10.2298/pan191203012c
  7. Dajcman, S. (2018). A regional panel approach to testing the validity of okun´s law: The case of Slovenia. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 52(3). https://doi.org/10.24818/18423264/52.3.18.03
  8. Darman, D. (2013). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran: Analisis Hukum Okun. The Winners, 14(1). https://doi.org/10.21512/tw.v14i1.639
  9. Duran, H. (2021). Validity of Okun’s Law in a spatially dependent and cyclical asymmetric context. Panoeconomicus, 00. https://doi.org/10.2298/pan190529003d
  10. Elsayed, D. M. H. (2020). A Proposed Model For Okun Law In The Short-Run And Long-Run The Case Of Egypt (1982-2018). International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research, 05(03). https://doi.org/10.46609/ijsser.2020.v05i03.006
  11. Fahri, Jalil, A., & Kasnelly, S. (2020). Meningkatnya Angka Pengangguran Di Tengah Pandemi (Covid-19). Al-Mizan: Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah, 2(2).
  12. Farid, A. (2007). Analisis Tingkat Pengangguran Di Indonesia Tahun 1980-2007 Farid Alghofari Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Diponegoro Semarang. Analisis Tingkat Pengangguran Di Indonesia Tahun 1980-2007.
  13. Fouquau, J., & Fouquau ESC Rouen, J. (2008). Threshold effects in Okun’s Law: a panel data analysis. In Economics Bulletin (Vol. 5, Issue 33).
  14. Hashmi, S. M., Khushik, A. G., Gilal, M. A., & Yongliang, Z. (2021). The Impact of GDP and Its Expenditure Components on Unemployment Within BRICS Countries: Evidence of Okun’s Law From Aggregate and Disaggregated Approaches. SAGE Open, 11(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440211023423
  15. Huang, H. C., & Chang, Y. K. (2005). Investigating Okun’s law by the structural break with threshold approach: Evidence from Canada. In Manchester School (Vol. 73, Issue 5). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2005.00466.x
  16. Huang, H. C., & Lin, S. C. (2006). A flexible nonlinear inference to Okun’s relationship. Applied Economics Letters, 13(5). https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500398625
  17. Indayani, S., & Hartono, B. (2020). Analisis Pengangguran dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi sebagai Akibat Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Ekonomi & Manajemen Universitas Bina Sarana Infoematika, 18(2).
  18. Iswanto, D. A. (2013). Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Pengangguran: Validitas Hukum Okun di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah.
  19. Khan, M. S., & Senhadji, A. S. (2001). Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth. IMF Staff Papers. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451853339.001
  20. Pasaribu, E., & Ratu Eva Febriani, dan Septriani (2021).Kinerja Keuangan Pemerintah Kota Bengkulu, A., Derajat Desentralisasi Fiskal. Analisis Kinerja Keuangan Pemerintah Kota Bengkulu: Pendekatan Derajat Desentralisasi Fiskal. AKUNTABILITAS, 15(1), 137–154. https://ejournal.unsri.ac.id/index.php/ja/article/view/12054
  21. Knotek, E. S. (2007). How useful is Okun’s law? In Economic Review (Issue 4).
  22. Louail, B., & Ben Haj Hamida, H. (2021). Asymmetry Relationship between Economic Growth and Unemployment Rates in the Arab countries: Application of the OKUN Law during 1960-2017. Management, 25(2). https://doi.org/10.2478/manment-2019-0070
  23. Louail, B., & Benarous, D. (2021). Relationship between economic growth and unemployment rates in the algerian economy: Application of Okun’s law during 1991-2019. Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.15388/OMEE.2021.12.48
  24. Mankiw, N. G. (2010). Macroeconomics (7th Ed). In Worth Publishers. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
  25. Moosa, I. A. (2008). Economic Growth and Unemployment In Arab Countries: Is Okun’s Law Valid ? Journal of Development and Economic Policies, 10(2).
  26. Muchlas, Z., Stie, D., Agus, A. M., Alamsyah, R., & Malang, A. (2015). Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kurs Rupiah Terhadap Dolar Amerika Pasca Krisis (2000-2010). Jurnal JIBEKA.
  27. Pasaribu, E., Anitasari, M., & Gunawan, R. (2020). A Shift Share Analysis On Regional Competitiveness – A Case Of Bengkulu Province ,. International Journal of Social Science Research, 2(1), 99–108.
  28. Pasaribu, E., & Septriani, S. (2021). Pengujian Wagner’S Law Versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Pendekatan Regional Indonesia. Convergence: The Journal of Economic Development, 2(2), 181–193. https://doi.org/10.33369/convergence-jep.v2i2.14174
  29. Phiri, A. (2014). Nonlinear Co-Integration Between Unemployment and Economic Growth in South Africa. Managing Global Transitions: International Research Journal, 12(4).
  30. Purba, W., Nainggolan, P., & Panjaitan, P. D. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Pengangguran di Provinsi Sumatera Utara. Jurnal Ekuilnomi, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.36985/ekuilnomi.v4i1.336
  31. Raifu, I. A. (2023). Testing Okun’s law at sectoral level: evidence from Nigeria. International Journal of Development Issues, 22(1). https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDI-04-2022-0070
  32. Resurreccion, P. F. (2014). Linking Unemployment to Inflation and Economic Growth: Toward A Better Understanding of Unemployment in the Philippines. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 2(4). https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.8.2014.24.156.168
  33. Septriani, Armelly, Ekaputri, R. ., & Pasaribu, E. (2020). Analisis Fenomena Flypaper Effect Pada Kinerja Keuangan Kota Bengkulu. AKUNTABILITAS, 14(1), 33–56. https://ejournal.unsri.ac.id/index.php/ja/article/view/10718
  34. Shuaibu, M., Ibrahim Abdullahi, S., Muazu Yusuf, M., & Yusufu, M. (2021). Economic Growth and Labour Market Dynamics in Nigeria: Further Evidence from ARDL Bound Testing. Sumerianz Journal of Economics and Finance, 41. https://doi.org/10.47752/sjef.41.35.40
  35. Syarun, M. M. (2016). Inflasi , Pengangguran Dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Negara-Negara Islam. Jurnal Ekonomi Islam, 7(2).
  36. Syssoyeva-Masson, I., & Andrade, J. S. (2017). Are PIIGS so different? An empirical analysis of demand and supply shocks. Panoeconomicus, 64(2Special Issue). https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN1702189S