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Abstract
Abstract
This study analyzes the influence of social and environmental dynamics on economic resilience, which is measured through Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) on the island of Sumatra during the period 2011 to 2022. Considering the increasing uncertainty in the global economy due to climate change, this research aims to analyze how factors such as Poverty level, unemployment rate, Human Development Index (HDI), air quality index, water quality index and environmental quality index affect GRDP. Using a quantitative approach, secondary data from ten provinces in Sumatra during the period 2011 to 2022 was analyzed using the panel data regression method. The findings show that poverty has a significant negative effect on GRDP, while HDI has a positive effect on GRDP. In addition, air and water quality indices have a negative impact on GRDP, highlighting the need for effective environmental management strategies. This research underscores the important relationship between environmental conditions and economic performance, showing that sustainable development strategies are critical to increasing economic resilience in vulnerable regions such as Sumatra.
Keywords:Social and Environmental Dynamics, Economic Resilience, GRDP, Poverty, Environmental Quality
Abstrak
Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh dinamika sosial dan lingkungan terhadap ketahanan ekonomi yang diukur melalui Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) di Pulau Sumatera selama periode 2011 hingga 2022. Mengingat meningkatnya ketidakpastian dalam perekonomian global akibat perubahan iklim, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis bagaimana faktor-faktor seperti tingkat kemiskinan, tingkat pengangguran, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM), indeks kualitas udara, indeks kualitas air, dan indeks kualitas lingkungan mempengaruhi PDRB. Dengan menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif, data sekunder dari sepuluh provinsi di Sumatera selama periode 2011 hingga 2022 dianalisis dengan menggunakan metode regresi data panel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kemiskinan berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap PDRB, sedangkan IPM berpengaruh positif terhadap PDRB. Selain itu, indeks kualitas udara dan air memiliki dampak negatif terhadap PDRB, menyoroti perlunya strategi pengelolaan lingkungan yang efektif. Penelitian ini menggarisbawahi hubungan penting antara kondisi lingkungan dan kinerja ekonomi, yang menunjukkan bahwa strategi pembangunan berkelanjutan sangat penting untuk meningkatkan ketahanan ekonomi di daerah yang rentan seperti Sumatera.
Kata kunci : Dinamika Sosial dan Lingkungan, Ketahanan Ekonomi, PDRB, Kemiskinan, Kualitas Lingkungan
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Copyright (c) 2025 Sherin Shifa Kendani, Ratu Eva Febriani
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How to Cite
Social And Environmental Dynamics In Economic Resilience: A Review Of The Influence On GRDP. (2024). Convergence: The Journal of Economic Development, 6(2), 164–183. https://doi.org/10.33369/convergencejep.v6i2.38222
References
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Abubakar, J., Khairani, F., & Safwadi, I. (2022). Pengaruh Ketimpangan Pendapatan, Investasi Dan Pengangguran Terhadap Pdrb Di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2005-2020. Jurnal Ekonomi Regional Unimal, 5(2), 11. https://doi.org/10.29103/jeru.v5i2.8309
Barika, B., Ekaputri, R. A., & Hermanto, B. A. (2024). Determinan Kemiskinan Di Sumatera. Jurnal Ekonomi-Qu, 13(1), 68. https://doi.org/10.35448/jequ.v13i1.20532
Boserup, E. (2013). The conditions of agricultural growth: The economics of agrarian change under population pressure. The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change Under Population Pressure, 1–124. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315016320
Budihardjo, A., Arianti, F., & Mas’ud, F. (2020). Pengaruh Investasi, Tenaga Kerja, dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Terhadap PDRB (Studi Kasus Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2016-2018). Diponegoro Journal of Economics, 9(2337–3814), 1–9. https://ejournal2.undip.ac.id/index.php/dje
Claudia, E. R., & Nugrahadi, E. W. (2024). Dampak tingkat inflasi dan kualitas lingkungan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. 4(3), 647–661.
Damayanti, R. (2016). Analisis Pola Hubungan PDRB Dengan Faktor Pencemaran Lingkungan Di Indonesia Menggunakan Pendekatan Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR).
Finanda, N., & Gunarto, T. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Pertumbuhan Penduduk, Serta Tingkat Kemiskinan Terhadap Indeks Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup. Jurnal Sosial Sains, 2(1), 193–202. https://doi.org/10.59188/jurnalsosains.v2i1.324
Geli, K. A. K., Harsono, H., & Widiawati, D. (2021). Pengaruh PDRB, Pertumbuhan Penduduk, dan UMK Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Kabupaten Flores Timur Tahun 2010-2019. Journal of Regional Economics Indonesia, 2(1), 92–107. https://doi.org/10.26905/jrei.v2i1.6185
Greene, W. W. . (2012). Econometric Analysis (7th ed.). Prentice Hall. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2002.s458
Hannyfah, M., Susanti Tasri, E., Darma Yenti, C., & Kristiani Zai, Y. (2023). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Kemiskinan dan Pengangguran Terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) di Indonesia Era Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Economic Development, 1(1), 34–45. https://www.ecodev.bunghatta.ac.id/index.php/ecodev/article/view/14/24
Inayati, W. N., & Febriani, R. E. (2024). Effect of Green Economy Variable on Sumatera Regional Income. 3(2), 147–160.
Jalil, S. A., & Kamaruddin, M. N. (2018). Examining the relationship between human development index and socio-economic variables: a panel data analysis. Journal of International Business, Economics and Entrepreneurship, 3(2), 37-37.
Laksamana, R. (2016). Pengaruh PDRB Terhadap Pengangguran Di Kabupaten/Kota Kalimantan Barat. Jurnal Audit Dan Akuntansi Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Tanjungpura Vol.5, No. 2, Desember 2016 Hal 111-134, 274–282.
Munir, M. M., & Nurohman, D. (2021). Pengaruh Indeks Harga Konsumen, Inflasi, Dan Kemiskinan Terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto Provinsi Jawa Timur. Ekonomi Bisnis, 27(2), 657–670. https://doi.org/10.33592/jeb.v27i2.1878
Matthews, R. (2018). The illusion of growth and the fallacy of Kuznets curve. The Green Market Oracle.
Nikensari, S. I., Destilawati, S., & Nurjanah, S. (2019). Studi Environmental Kuznets Curve Di Asia: Sebelum Dan Setelah Millennium Development Goals. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 27(2), 11–25. https://doi.org/10.14203/jep.27.2.2019.11-25
Pettinger, T. (2019). Environmental Kuznets curve. Economics Help. https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/14337/environment/environmental-kuznets-curve/
Pradana, H., & Fitriyanti, S. (2022). Causal Relationship Between Government Expenditure, Economic Growth, And Poverty In South Kalimantan. Jurnal Kebijakan Pembangunan, 17(2), 275–288. https://doi.org/10.47441/jkp.v17i2.280
Pratama, Citra, Y. (2019). Analisis Faktor - Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kemiskinandi IndonesiaTujuan dari penelitian ini ada. Jurnal Administrasi Publik Dan Bisnis, 1(2), 1–15.
Putra, R., Sinurat, P., Utama, J. B., Manggu, J., Kec, T., Aren, P., & Selatan, K. T. (n.d.). Pengaruh Kemiskinan, IPM, Dan Pengangguran Terhadap PDRB Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat. 130–143.
Ramadhan, A. M. (2023). Dampak Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup. Determinasi: Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi Manajemen Dan Akuntansi, 1(2), 1–12.
Roslyakova, N., & Okrepilov, V. V. (2023). Poverty and Economic Growth in Russian Agglomerations: Trends and Dependencies. Economy of Regions, 19(4), 1048–1061. https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-4-8
Sari, N. M., & Setyowati, E. (2023). Analisis determinan PDRB di pulau Bali tahun 2010-2020. Jurnal Bisnis Dan Manajemen, 3(1), 109–119. https://ejournal.penerbitjurnal.com/index.php/business/article/view/90%0Ahttps://ejournal.penerbitjurnal.com/index.php/business/article/download/90/75
Sofiatus, Z. (2017). The Effect of Gross Domestic Regional Product, Workforce, and Minimum Wage on the Unemployment Rate in Malang City. Jurnal Ekonomi.
Yani, A., Restiatun, R., & Nuratika, N. (2023). Indeks Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup Dan Determinannya: Studi Kasus Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 12(3), 178–186. https://doi.org/10.23960/jep.v12i3.2132
References
Abubakar, J., Khairani, F., & Safwadi, I. (2022). Pengaruh Ketimpangan Pendapatan, Investasi Dan Pengangguran Terhadap Pdrb Di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2005-2020. Jurnal Ekonomi Regional Unimal, 5(2), 11. https://doi.org/10.29103/jeru.v5i2.8309
Barika, B., Ekaputri, R. A., & Hermanto, B. A. (2024). Determinan Kemiskinan Di Sumatera. Jurnal Ekonomi-Qu, 13(1), 68. https://doi.org/10.35448/jequ.v13i1.20532
Boserup, E. (2013). The conditions of agricultural growth: The economics of agrarian change under population pressure. The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change Under Population Pressure, 1–124. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315016320
Budihardjo, A., Arianti, F., & Mas’ud, F. (2020). Pengaruh Investasi, Tenaga Kerja, dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Terhadap PDRB (Studi Kasus Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2016-2018). Diponegoro Journal of Economics, 9(2337–3814), 1–9. https://ejournal2.undip.ac.id/index.php/dje
Claudia, E. R., & Nugrahadi, E. W. (2024). Dampak tingkat inflasi dan kualitas lingkungan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. 4(3), 647–661.
Damayanti, R. (2016). Analisis Pola Hubungan PDRB Dengan Faktor Pencemaran Lingkungan Di Indonesia Menggunakan Pendekatan Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR).
Finanda, N., & Gunarto, T. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Pertumbuhan Penduduk, Serta Tingkat Kemiskinan Terhadap Indeks Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup. Jurnal Sosial Sains, 2(1), 193–202. https://doi.org/10.59188/jurnalsosains.v2i1.324
Geli, K. A. K., Harsono, H., & Widiawati, D. (2021). Pengaruh PDRB, Pertumbuhan Penduduk, dan UMK Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Kabupaten Flores Timur Tahun 2010-2019. Journal of Regional Economics Indonesia, 2(1), 92–107. https://doi.org/10.26905/jrei.v2i1.6185
Greene, W. W. . (2012). Econometric Analysis (7th ed.). Prentice Hall. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2002.s458
Hannyfah, M., Susanti Tasri, E., Darma Yenti, C., & Kristiani Zai, Y. (2023). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Kemiskinan dan Pengangguran Terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) di Indonesia Era Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Economic Development, 1(1), 34–45. https://www.ecodev.bunghatta.ac.id/index.php/ecodev/article/view/14/24
Inayati, W. N., & Febriani, R. E. (2024). Effect of Green Economy Variable on Sumatera Regional Income. 3(2), 147–160.
Jalil, S. A., & Kamaruddin, M. N. (2018). Examining the relationship between human development index and socio-economic variables: a panel data analysis. Journal of International Business, Economics and Entrepreneurship, 3(2), 37-37.
Laksamana, R. (2016). Pengaruh PDRB Terhadap Pengangguran Di Kabupaten/Kota Kalimantan Barat. Jurnal Audit Dan Akuntansi Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Tanjungpura Vol.5, No. 2, Desember 2016 Hal 111-134, 274–282.
Munir, M. M., & Nurohman, D. (2021). Pengaruh Indeks Harga Konsumen, Inflasi, Dan Kemiskinan Terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto Provinsi Jawa Timur. Ekonomi Bisnis, 27(2), 657–670. https://doi.org/10.33592/jeb.v27i2.1878
Matthews, R. (2018). The illusion of growth and the fallacy of Kuznets curve. The Green Market Oracle.
Nikensari, S. I., Destilawati, S., & Nurjanah, S. (2019). Studi Environmental Kuznets Curve Di Asia: Sebelum Dan Setelah Millennium Development Goals. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 27(2), 11–25. https://doi.org/10.14203/jep.27.2.2019.11-25
Pettinger, T. (2019). Environmental Kuznets curve. Economics Help. https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/14337/environment/environmental-kuznets-curve/
Pradana, H., & Fitriyanti, S. (2022). Causal Relationship Between Government Expenditure, Economic Growth, And Poverty In South Kalimantan. Jurnal Kebijakan Pembangunan, 17(2), 275–288. https://doi.org/10.47441/jkp.v17i2.280
Pratama, Citra, Y. (2019). Analisis Faktor - Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kemiskinandi IndonesiaTujuan dari penelitian ini ada. Jurnal Administrasi Publik Dan Bisnis, 1(2), 1–15.
Putra, R., Sinurat, P., Utama, J. B., Manggu, J., Kec, T., Aren, P., & Selatan, K. T. (n.d.). Pengaruh Kemiskinan, IPM, Dan Pengangguran Terhadap PDRB Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat. 130–143.
Ramadhan, A. M. (2023). Dampak Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup. Determinasi: Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi Manajemen Dan Akuntansi, 1(2), 1–12.
Roslyakova, N., & Okrepilov, V. V. (2023). Poverty and Economic Growth in Russian Agglomerations: Trends and Dependencies. Economy of Regions, 19(4), 1048–1061. https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-4-8
Sari, N. M., & Setyowati, E. (2023). Analisis determinan PDRB di pulau Bali tahun 2010-2020. Jurnal Bisnis Dan Manajemen, 3(1), 109–119. https://ejournal.penerbitjurnal.com/index.php/business/article/view/90%0Ahttps://ejournal.penerbitjurnal.com/index.php/business/article/download/90/75
Sofiatus, Z. (2017). The Effect of Gross Domestic Regional Product, Workforce, and Minimum Wage on the Unemployment Rate in Malang City. Jurnal Ekonomi.
Yani, A., Restiatun, R., & Nuratika, N. (2023). Indeks Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup Dan Determinannya: Studi Kasus Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 12(3), 178–186. https://doi.org/10.23960/jep.v12i3.2132
Barika, B., Ekaputri, R. A., & Hermanto, B. A. (2024). Determinan Kemiskinan Di Sumatera. Jurnal Ekonomi-Qu, 13(1), 68. https://doi.org/10.35448/jequ.v13i1.20532
Boserup, E. (2013). The conditions of agricultural growth: The economics of agrarian change under population pressure. The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change Under Population Pressure, 1–124. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315016320
Budihardjo, A., Arianti, F., & Mas’ud, F. (2020). Pengaruh Investasi, Tenaga Kerja, dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Terhadap PDRB (Studi Kasus Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2016-2018). Diponegoro Journal of Economics, 9(2337–3814), 1–9. https://ejournal2.undip.ac.id/index.php/dje
Claudia, E. R., & Nugrahadi, E. W. (2024). Dampak tingkat inflasi dan kualitas lingkungan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. 4(3), 647–661.
Damayanti, R. (2016). Analisis Pola Hubungan PDRB Dengan Faktor Pencemaran Lingkungan Di Indonesia Menggunakan Pendekatan Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR).
Finanda, N., & Gunarto, T. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Pertumbuhan Penduduk, Serta Tingkat Kemiskinan Terhadap Indeks Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup. Jurnal Sosial Sains, 2(1), 193–202. https://doi.org/10.59188/jurnalsosains.v2i1.324
Geli, K. A. K., Harsono, H., & Widiawati, D. (2021). Pengaruh PDRB, Pertumbuhan Penduduk, dan UMK Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Kabupaten Flores Timur Tahun 2010-2019. Journal of Regional Economics Indonesia, 2(1), 92–107. https://doi.org/10.26905/jrei.v2i1.6185
Greene, W. W. . (2012). Econometric Analysis (7th ed.). Prentice Hall. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2002.s458
Hannyfah, M., Susanti Tasri, E., Darma Yenti, C., & Kristiani Zai, Y. (2023). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Kemiskinan dan Pengangguran Terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) di Indonesia Era Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Economic Development, 1(1), 34–45. https://www.ecodev.bunghatta.ac.id/index.php/ecodev/article/view/14/24
Inayati, W. N., & Febriani, R. E. (2024). Effect of Green Economy Variable on Sumatera Regional Income. 3(2), 147–160.
Jalil, S. A., & Kamaruddin, M. N. (2018). Examining the relationship between human development index and socio-economic variables: a panel data analysis. Journal of International Business, Economics and Entrepreneurship, 3(2), 37-37.
Laksamana, R. (2016). Pengaruh PDRB Terhadap Pengangguran Di Kabupaten/Kota Kalimantan Barat. Jurnal Audit Dan Akuntansi Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Tanjungpura Vol.5, No. 2, Desember 2016 Hal 111-134, 274–282.
Munir, M. M., & Nurohman, D. (2021). Pengaruh Indeks Harga Konsumen, Inflasi, Dan Kemiskinan Terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto Provinsi Jawa Timur. Ekonomi Bisnis, 27(2), 657–670. https://doi.org/10.33592/jeb.v27i2.1878
Matthews, R. (2018). The illusion of growth and the fallacy of Kuznets curve. The Green Market Oracle.
Nikensari, S. I., Destilawati, S., & Nurjanah, S. (2019). Studi Environmental Kuznets Curve Di Asia: Sebelum Dan Setelah Millennium Development Goals. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 27(2), 11–25. https://doi.org/10.14203/jep.27.2.2019.11-25
Pettinger, T. (2019). Environmental Kuznets curve. Economics Help. https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/14337/environment/environmental-kuznets-curve/
Pradana, H., & Fitriyanti, S. (2022). Causal Relationship Between Government Expenditure, Economic Growth, And Poverty In South Kalimantan. Jurnal Kebijakan Pembangunan, 17(2), 275–288. https://doi.org/10.47441/jkp.v17i2.280
Pratama, Citra, Y. (2019). Analisis Faktor - Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kemiskinandi IndonesiaTujuan dari penelitian ini ada. Jurnal Administrasi Publik Dan Bisnis, 1(2), 1–15.
Putra, R., Sinurat, P., Utama, J. B., Manggu, J., Kec, T., Aren, P., & Selatan, K. T. (n.d.). Pengaruh Kemiskinan, IPM, Dan Pengangguran Terhadap PDRB Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat. 130–143.
Ramadhan, A. M. (2023). Dampak Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup. Determinasi: Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi Manajemen Dan Akuntansi, 1(2), 1–12.
Roslyakova, N., & Okrepilov, V. V. (2023). Poverty and Economic Growth in Russian Agglomerations: Trends and Dependencies. Economy of Regions, 19(4), 1048–1061. https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-4-8
Sari, N. M., & Setyowati, E. (2023). Analisis determinan PDRB di pulau Bali tahun 2010-2020. Jurnal Bisnis Dan Manajemen, 3(1), 109–119. https://ejournal.penerbitjurnal.com/index.php/business/article/view/90%0Ahttps://ejournal.penerbitjurnal.com/index.php/business/article/download/90/75
Sofiatus, Z. (2017). The Effect of Gross Domestic Regional Product, Workforce, and Minimum Wage on the Unemployment Rate in Malang City. Jurnal Ekonomi.
Yani, A., Restiatun, R., & Nuratika, N. (2023). Indeks Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup Dan Determinannya: Studi Kasus Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 12(3), 178–186. https://doi.org/10.23960/jep.v12i3.2132