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Abstract

Abstract


The property sector plays an important role in meeting basic human needs and supporting social welfare. Residential property not only serves as a place to live but also as a major driver of economic activity and a preferred investment instrument. This study aims to analyze the causal relationship between residential property price indices and macroeconomic variables in five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Thailand) during the period from 2011Q1 to 2022Q4. The method used is panel data analysis. This study uses data on residential property price indices, inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), domestic credit, and central bank interest rates. The regression model selected is the Fixed Effects Model (FEM). FEM estimation results show that inflation, GDP, and domestic credit have a positive and significant effect on residential property price indices, while central bank interest rates have a negative and significant effect. These findings imply that an increase in central bank interest rates causes a decline in residential property prices. Therefore, the government must maintain inflation stability to support consistent housing demand, consider the impact of economic growth on property price fluctuations, and monitor developments in domestic credit and interest rates to prevent the potential formation of property bubbles and financial crises. 


Keywords :  Residential Property Price Index, Inflation, GDP, Domestic Credit, Central Bank Rate


 


Abstrak


Sektor properti memainkan peran penting dalam memenuhi kebutuhan dasar manusia dan mendukung kesejahteraan sosial. Properti hunian tidak hanya berfungsi sebagai tempat tinggal tetapi juga sebagai penggerak utama aktivitas ekonomi dan instrumen investasi yang disukai. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan kausal antara indeks harga properti hunian dan variabel makroekonomi di lima negara ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapura, Filipina, dan Thailand) selama periode 2011Q1 hingga 2022Q4. Metode yang digunakan adalah analisis data panel. Studi ini menggunakan data indeks harga properti hunian, inflasi, Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), kredit domestik, dan suku bunga bank sentral. Model regresi yang dipilih adalah Model Efek Tetap (FEM). Hasil estimasi FEM menunjukkan bahwa inflasi, PDB, dan kredit domestik memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap indeks harga properti hunian, sedangkan suku bunga bank sentral memiliki pengaruh negatif dan signifikan. Temuan ini menyiratkan bahwa peningkatan suku bunga bank sentral menyebabkan penurunan harga properti hunian. Oleh karena itu, pemerintah harus menjaga stabilitas inflasi untuk mendukung permintaan perumahan yang konsisten, mempertimbangkan dampak pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap fluktuasi harga properti, dan memantau perkembangan kredit domestik dan suku bunga untuk mencegah potensi terbentuknya gelem bung properti dan krisis keuangan.


Kata kunci : Indeks Harga Properti Perumahan, Inflasi, PDB, Kredit Domestik, Suku Bunga Bank Sentral

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Copyright (c) 2025 Nabila Miftaahur Ramah, Dina Arini Adipathy

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How to Cite
Ramah, N. M., & Adipathy, D. A. (2025). Macroeconomic Interactions and the Residential Property Market: Evidence from Five ASEAN Countries. Convergence: The Journal of Economic Development, 7(2), 138–158. https://doi.org/10.33369/convergencejep.v7i2.48111
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