Factors Affecting The Open Unemployment Rate in West Sumatera Province Using The Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Method

Abstract

The Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) is the percentage value of the ratio of the number of open unemployed to the total labor force. During the 2017-2022 period, the OUR faced fluctuations that showed significant numbers that could have a negative impact on economic growth and community welfare. The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that affect OUR in West Sumatra Province in 2017-2022 using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) method. This research is an applied research with data in the form of secondary data obtained at the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) of West Sumatra Province. The analysis carried out produces the best model at the minimum Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) value of 1.31675 from a combination of BF = 28, MI = 2 and MO = 1 so that the factors that influence the percentage of OUR are gross regional domestic product at current prices, population, population aged 15 years and over who are in school, population aged 15 years and over who work with the main job, average monthly per capita expenditure on food, average monthly per capita expenditure on non-food and monthly minimum wage with R² adj of 81.6 percent.