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Abstract
A type of climate variation in the Pacific Ocean known as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is defined by an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Central and Eastern equatorial areas, which affects the amount of rainfall that falls and increases. In Indonesia, the rainy season typically persists from October to March, whereas the dry season persists from April to September. Research on the influence of ENSO on rainfall has been carried out in several areas, but has not been carried out in the Tangerang area. This study aims to ascertain how the ENSO phenomena affect rainfall fluctuations and cloud distribution in the Regency of Tangerang. The secondary data, which includes information on rainfall, cloud cover, wind direction, and speed, was acquired from BMKG Meteorology Budiarto. In addition, data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) website's Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was used. Surface weather analysis and Pearson correlation analysis are the data analysis techniques used. The results presented that based on surface weather study, ENSO events had a consequence on cloud distribution in Tangerang Regency. The clouds lead when the ENSO phenomenon occurs, namely Cumulus and Nimbostratus clouds with a 4-8 octa cloud cover. Meanwhile, the correlation test results show that ENSO influences seasonal and annual rainfall variations in the district of Tangerang. The largest correlation between SOI and annual rainfall occurred in 2015 with a correlation value of r-0.84 (very strong). Meanwhile, the greatest correlation between SOI and seasonal rainfall occurred in July-September with a correlation value of r=0.67 (strong).
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References
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References
F. S. Pandia, B. Sasmito, and A. Sukmono, “Analisis pengaruh angin monsun terhadap perubahan curah hujan dengan penginderaan jauh (Studi kasus: Provinsi Jawa Tengah),” J. Geod. Undip, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 278–287, 2019.
A. Fadholi, “Studi dampak el nino dan indian ocean dipole (IOD) terhadap curah hujan di Pangkalpinang,” J. Ilmu Lingkung., vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 43–50, 2013.
A. Safril, “PENGARUH INTESITAS EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION DISERTAI INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE TERHADAP SIFAT HUJAN DI JAWA BARAT BAGIAN TENGGARA,” in PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL FISIKA (E-JOURNAL), 2018, pp. SNF2018--PA.
I. G. A. Gunadi and A. A. K. Dewi, “Klasifikasi curah hujan di provinsi bali berdasarkan metode na{"i}ve bayesian,” J. Mat. Sains, dan Pembelajarannya, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 14–25, 2018.
I. Narulita, “Pengaruh ENSO dan IOD pada variabilitas curah hujan di DAS Cerucuk, Pulau Belitung,” J. Tanah dan Iklim, vol. 41, no. 1, pp. 45–60, 2017.
C. T. Y. Chung and S. B. Power, "The non-linear impact of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation on seasonal and regional Australian precipitation," J. South. Hemisph. Earth Syst. Sci., vol. 67, no. 1, pp. 25–45, 2017.
A. Yananto, R. M. Sibarani, and others, “Analisis kejadian el nino dan pengaruhnya terhadap intensitas curah hujan di wilayah JABODETABEK (studi kasus: periode puncak musim hujan tahun 2015/2016),” J. Sains & Teknol. Modify. Cuaca, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 65–73, 2016.
Y. Kristanto, T. Agustin, and F. R. Muhammad, “Pendugaan Karakteristik Awan berdasarkan Data Spektral Citra Satelit Resolusi Spasial Menengah Landsat 8 Oli/Tirs (Studi Kasus: Provinsi Dki Jakarta),” J. Meteorol. Klimatologi Dan Geofis., vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 42–50, 2017.
I. Al Rusman, O. Rohaeni, and E. Kurniati, “Aplikasi Pencocokan Kurva (Curve Fitting) Dalam Menganalisis Pengaruh SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) Terhadap Curah Hujan di Indonesia,” Mat. J. Teor. Dan Terap. Mat., vol. 15, no. 1, 2016.
M. Frölich, A. Landmann, M. Olapade, and R. Poppe, “Non-experimental methodologies for quantitative analysis,” A Pract. Guid. to impact assessments micro-insurance, pp. 111–129, 2014.
L. Nurhijriah, Y. Ruhiyat, D. A. Rostikawati, and others, “Pemetaan Distribusi Curah Hujan Rata-Rata Menggunakan Metode Isohyet di Wilayah Kabupaten Tangerang,” Newton-Maxwell J. Phys., vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 46–55, 2022.
G. R. McGregor and K. Ebi, “El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and health: An overview for climate and health researchers,” Atmosphere (Basel)., vol. 9, no. 7, p. 282, 2018.
W. Cai et al., “Changing El Niño--Southern oscillation in a warming climate,” Nat. Rev. Earth & Environ., vol. 2, no. 9, pp. 628–644, 2021.
C. Wang, C. Deser, J.-Y. Yu, P. DiNezio, and A. Clement, “El Niño and southern oscillation (ENSO): a review,” Coral reefs East. Trop. Pacific Persistence loss a Dyn. Environ., pp. 85–106, 2017.
U. Hidayat, S. Prasetyo, Y. D. Haryanto, and N. F. Riama, “Pengaruh ENSO Terhadap Curah Hujan dan Kelembapan Relatif serta Suhu Permukaan Laut di Sulawesi,” Bul. GAW Bariri, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 88–96, 2021.
C. D. L. Simbolon, Y. Ruhiat, and A. Saefullah, “Analysis of Wind Direction and Speed of Rainfall Distribution in Tangerang Regency,” J. Teor. Dan Apl. Fis., vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 113–120, 2022.
H. Segura et al., “New insights into the rainfall variability in the tropical Andes on seasonal and interannual time scales,” Clim. Dyn., vol. 53, no. 1–2, pp. 405–426, 2019.
P. A. Kholiviana, Y. Ruhiat, and A. Saefullah, “Analisis Vertical Wind Shear Pada Pertumbuhan Awan Cumulonimbus Di Wilayah Kabupaten Tangerang,” Newton-Maxwell J. Phys., vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 17–23, 2022.
S. Mukherjee, J. Pal, S. Manna, A. Saha, and D. Das, “El-Niño Southern Oscillation and its effects,” in Visualization Techniques for Climate Change with Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, Elsevier, 2023, pp. 207–228.
N. K. Martinia, I. W. Nuarsaa, and I. W. G. A. Karanga, “Pengaruh Suhu Permukaan Laut (SPL) terhadap Curah Hujan di Perairan Bali menggunakan Data Citra Satelit”.
Supari, F. Tangang, E. Salimun, E. Aldrian, A. Sopaheluwakan, and L. Juneng, “ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia,” Clim. Dyn., vol. 51, pp. 2559–2580, 2018.
H. S. Lee, “General rainfall patterns in Indonesia and the potential impacts of local seas on rainfall intensity,” Water, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 1751–1768, 2015.
A. P. Dimri, T. Yasunari, B. S. Kotlia, U. C. Mohanty, and D. R. Sikka, “Indian winter monsoon: Present and past,” Earth-science Rev., vol. 163, pp. 297–322, 2016.
A. B. Villas Bôas et al., “Integrated observations of global surface winds, currents, and waves: requirements and challenges for the next decade,” Front. Mar. Sci., vol. 6, p. 425, 2019.
Y. Y. Loo, L. Billa, and A. Singh, “Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia,” Geosci. Front., vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 817–823, 2015.
N. P. Purba, Oseanografi Indonesia: Trajektori Arus Lintas Indonesia. Penerbit Lakeisha, 2020.
N. D. Rahayu, B. Sasmito, and N. Bashit, “Analisis pengaruh fenomena Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) terhadap curah hujan di pulau Jawa,” J. Geod. Undip, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 57–67, 2018.
M. C. Gamarra, Y. Ruhiat, and A. Saefullah, “Deteksi Sebaran Curah Hujan Dengan Menggunakan Metode Thiessen Polygon (Study Kasus: Kota Serang),” in PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL PENDIDIKAN FISIKA UNTIRTA, 2019.
S. Harlina, R. Armus, and others, “ANALISIS REGRESI LINER DALAM PREDIKSI KEPADATAN HUJAN DATA SUHU PERMUKAAN LAUT DAN PERTUMBUHAN KLOROFIL,” in SENSITIf: Seminar Nasional Sistem Informasi dan Teknologi Informasi, 2019, pp. 771–777.
I. Narulita, R. Rahayu, E. Kusratmoko, S. Supriatna, and M. Djuwansah, “Ancaman kekeringan meteorologis di pulau Kecil tropis akibat pengaruh El-Nino Dan Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) positif, studi kasus: Pulau Bintan,” J. Lingkung. dan Bencana Geol., vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 127–138, 2020.
H. Amrianah, “Impacts of The El Niño and La Niña Extreme Climate on Socio-Economic and Politics in Indonesia,” Meraja J., vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 35–45, 2020.