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Abstract
This research is aimed at examining the best forecasting model for riceprice at
wholesaler price. Monthly data of ricefrom 2010:1 –2017:12 are used for this research and three trend model, i.e.,MA, Decomposition and Single Exponential Smoothing are applied in which the selection of the best model is based on the lowest value of MAPE, MAD, and MSE or MSD. This research finds that the best forecasting model is MA(2).
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References
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References
Bappenas. 2010. Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah (RPJHMN) 2010-2014 (Peraturan Pemerintah Nomor 5 Tahun 2010). Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional, Jakarta.
Brown, R.G. 1959. Statistical Forecasting for Inventory Control, New York: McGraw-Hill
Food and Agricultural Organizat ion of the Unit ed Nat ions (FAO). 2004. Food and Population: FAO Looks ahead.
Gaspersz, V. 2008. Production Planning & Inventory Control, Jakarta, Gramedia.
Holt, C.C. 1957. Forecasting Seasonals And Trends By Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages, ONR Memorandum (Vol. 52), Pittsburgh, PA: Carnegie Institute of Technology. Available from the Engineering Library, University of Texas at Austin.
Krajewski, Lee J., and Larry P. Ritzman. 1993. Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, 5th Edition. Pearson
Makridakis, S. S. C., dan Wheelwright. Dan V. E. McGeee. 1993. Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan Jilid 1. Edisi Pertama. Binarupa Aksara, Jakarta.
Nasution, A. H., dan Prasetyawan. 2008. Perencanaan dan Pengendalian Produksi. Yogyakarta : Graha Ilmu.
Render,B. and Heizer,J. 2005. Operation Management , 7th edition Manajemen Operasi edisi 7, Buku 1. Penerbit Salemba Empat. Jakarta.
Suryana, Achmad; Benny Rachman dan Maino Dwi HartonoDinamika Kebijakan. 2014. Harga Gabah Dan Beras Dalam Mendukung Ketahanan Pangan Nasional. Pengembangan Inovasi Pertanian. 7(4): 155-168.