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Abstract

ABSTRAK


 


Kejadian hujan sangat lebat di Kabupaten Cilacap pada 8–9 Oktober 2022 yang memicu banjir pada 9 Oktober 2022 menunjukkan adanya interaksi berbagai skala atmosfer yang kompleks dan belum banyak dibahas dalam studi sebelumnya. Penelitian ini menganalisis mekanisme penguatan konveksi pada skala global, regional, dan lokal dengan mengintegrasikan indeks NINO 3.4, IOD, MJO, suhu permukaan laut, pola aliran angin, data ECMWF, serta citra satelit Himawari-8 band 13. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa kombinasi La Niña dan IOD negatif yang diikuti anomali suhu permukaan laut positif di selatan Jawa membentuk latar kondisi basah yang signifikan, namun fase 4 MJO yang secara klimatologis cenderung melemahkan konveksi justru tidak menghambat perkembangan awan. Ketidaksesuaian ini dijelaskan oleh adanya penguatan konvergensi regional dan pendinginan suhu puncak awan hingga −76,9 °C, yang menandakan pertumbuhan awan konvektif secara intensif. Pada skala lokal, indeks stabilitas atmosfer menunjukkan kondisi labil yang memicu terbentuknya hujan sangat lebat pada 8 Oktober 2022 antara pukul 18.00–21.00 UTC. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa hujan ekstrem di Cilacap bukan hanya dipicu oleh kondisi globa yang basah, tetapi oleh hubungan antara anomali termal regional dan ketidakstabilan lokal yang mampu meniadakan efek pelemahan konveksi dari MJO fase 4. Studi ini memberikan pemahaman yang lebih komprehensif mengenai dinamika berbagai skala pemicu hujan ekstrem di pesisir selatan Jawa dan dapat berkontribusi pada peningkatan akurasi peringatan dini banjir berbasis kondisi atmosfer aktual.


 


Kata  kunci : Hujan Lebat, Ecmwf, Citra Satelit, Observasi, Cilacap


 


ABSTRACT


 


The extreme rainfall event in Cilacap Regency on 8–9 October 2022, which triggered flooding on 9 October 2022 reflects the interaction of complex atmospheric processes across multiple scales and that has not been extensively explored in previous studies. This research investigates the mechanisms that enhanced convection at global, regional, and local scales by integrating the NINO 3.4 index, IOD, MJO, sea surface temperature, wind patterns, ECMWF data, and Himawari-8 band 13 satellite imagery. The analysis shows that the combination of La Niña and a negative IOD accompanied by positive sea surface temperature anomalies south of Java established a markedly moist background environment. However, despite the climatological tendency of MJO phase 4 to suppress convection, it did not inhibit cloud development during this event. This apparent inconsistency is explained by strengthened regional scale convergence and cloud top cooling reaching −76.9 °C, indicating vigorous convective growth. At the local scale, atmospheric stability indices reveal highly unstable conditions that triggered the very heavy rainfall observed on 8 October 2022 between 18.00–21.00 UTC. These findings demonstrate that the extreme rainfall in Cilacap was driven not only by moist global conditions but also by the interplay between regional thermal anomalies and local instability, which effectively counteracted the convective suppression typically associated with MJO phase 4. This study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the multiscale dynamics that trigger extreme rainfall along the southern coast of Java and contributes to improving the accuracy of flood early-warning systems based on real-time atmospheric conditions.


 


Keywords : Heavy Rainfall, Ecmwf, Satellite Imagery, Observation, Cilacap

Keywords

Heavy Rainfall Ecmwf Satellite Imagery Observation Cilacap Hujan Lebat Ecmwf Citra Satelit Observasi Cilacap

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Copyright (c) 2025 I Dewa Gede Loka Maheswara, Muhammad Nur Rizqi, Muhammad Fany Nurwibowo, Achmad Zakir, Aditya Mulya

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How to Cite
Maheswara, I. D. G. L., Rizqi, M. N., Nurwibowo, M. F., Zakir, A., & Mulya, A. (2025). ANALISIS HUJAN LEBAT DI CILACAP MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ECMWF, CITRA SATELIT, DAN DATA OBSERVASI . Jurnal Kumparan Fisika, 8(3), 95–104. https://doi.org/10.33369/jkf.8.3.95-104
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